dinsdag 19 januari 2016

Beperkt beschikbare olie en het einde van de schuldensupercyclus

“What is ahead for 2016 ?  Most people don’t realize how tightly the following are linked :
1. Growth in debt
2. Growth in the economy
3. Growth in cheap-to-extract energy supplies
4. Inflation in the cost of producing commodities
5. Growth in asset prices, such as the price of shares of stock and of farmland
6. Growth in wages of non-elite workers
7. Population growth”

“Many people have talked about Peak Oil, the Limits to Growth and the Debt Supercycle without realizing that the underlying problem is really the same – the fact that we are reaching the limits of a finite world.”
“The US government has recently decided to raise interest rates.  This further reduces the buying power of non-elite workers.  We have a situation where the “economic growth pump”, created through the use of a rising quantity of cheap energy products plus rising debt, is disappearing.”
“Debt defaults are likely to cause major problems in 2016.  As noted in the introduction, we seem to be approaching the unwinding of the debt supercycle.  We can expect one company after another to fail because of low commodity prices.  The problems of these failing companies can be expected to spread to the economy as a whole.”
“Thus all economies have finite lifetimes, just as humans, animals, plants and hurricanes do.  We are in the unfortunate position of observing the end of our economy’s lifetime.”

“We know that historically collapses have tended to take many years.  This collapse may take place more rapidly because today’s economy is dependent on international supply chains, electricity and liquid fuels – things that previous economies were not dependent on.”

Voor het volledige artikel, zie : Oil limits and the end of the Debt supercycle

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